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An interesting question and an interesting answer.

Guy Kawasaki: What will the demographics of the US look like in 2050?

Dr. Joseph Chamie (Demographer): Later this year, sometime in mid-October, the US population is expected to hit the 300 million mark. The growth of the America’s population is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. By 2050 it is projected to grow to about 420 million; and by the century’s end, the projected US population is approaching close to 600 million.The age structure of the population is also expected to become older. For example, the proportion of the US population sixty-five years or older is expected to rise from 12 percent today to 21 percent by mid-century. Furthermore, Americans are expected to be living longer in the future, with many reaching 100 years or more. Also, today there are about five people in the working ages for every person sixty-five years or older; by mid-century this number will likely be cut in half.

The population will also be more urbanized, with large movements to outlying suburbs and smaller cities, and significant regional shifts to states in the South and West. Over the next twenty five years, for example, the five fastest growing states are expected to be Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas and Utah. In contrast, states in the Northeast and Midwest regions, such as North Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania, are projected to experience negative or close to zero population growth over the next quarter century.

America’s population will also likely continue to experience major shifts in its ethnic composition. According to the 2000 census, for example, the top five countries are no longer of European origin as was the case in the past; they are now Mexico, China, Philippines, India and Vietnam. In addition, greater proportions of Americans will have their ethnic origins from countries south of the U.S. border, especially from Mexico, which now represents close one-third of the foreign born residing in the US.

During the coming decades, America’s population is expected to remain around four to five percent of the world total. However, its demographic standing among developed countries as a whole will increase from one-quarter today to close one-third by 2050.

All in all, America’s population is expected to undergo major demographic changes during the 21st century. Given America’s dominant social, economic and political role in the world, these demographic changes will no doubt have significant and far-reaching consequences and repercussions for the country itself as well as for other nations.

ReferenceAddendum to Ten Questions with Dr. Joseph Chamie, Guy Kawasaki blog

RelatedTen Questions with Joseph Chamie, Demographer, Guy Kawasaki blog